Daily Sphere · Fri Nov 6

Daily Sphere Brief · What comes nextA jobs report, a mandate and a war decision test shaken marketsUS payrolls land this morning, Herzog names a candidate on Sunday, US inflation data and Ukraine talks arrive Tuesday, and Trump says an Iran decision is near.

−6.0%Fall in Japan's Nikkei 225 on Friday, matched by South Korea's Kospi, after Wall Street's AI routAP, Nov 6

~$3trnValue wiped off S&P 500 companies on Thursday, the index's worst day since April 2025Reuters, Nov 6

59,000Consensus forecast for US October payrolls, due 8:30 AM ET, with unemployment seen at 4.2%Kiplinger, Nov 6

This week

Fri · US jobs. Economists expect about 59,000 jobs in October after 29,000 in September. After Thursday's rout, a weak number would feed growth fears as much as hopes of easier Fed policy.
Sun · Israel's mandate. President Herzog will announce who gets the first chance to form a government after 67 lawmakers recommended Gadi Eisenkot and 46 Benjamin Netanyahu. Whoever gets it must still find a working majority of 61.
Mon · COP31 opens. Climate talks run in Antalya from Nov 9 to 20, with leaders meeting Nov 11-12. Aid budgets are shrinking, so what rich countries pledge on climate finance will be closely watched.
Tue · CPI and Abu Dhabi. US October inflation is out at 8:30 AM ET, ahead of the Fed's Dec 9 decision. The same day, US-mediated Ukraine-Russia talks open in Abu Dhabi for two days.
Thu · UK growth. Britain publishes third-quarter GDP a week after the Bank of England raised rates to 4%. A weak number would sharpen the question of how far the Bank can go.

Storylines to watch

Hormuz, day 252. Trump says "Now we will make a decision" on whether to resume the war, while Iran has sent a nuclear proposal through Qatar. Whether that proposal gains traction in the coming days decides whether shipping gets relief or more risk.
Sudan, day 1,302. Drone strikes have hit fuel stations across Kordofan, and an RSF drone killed civilians in Blue Nile. Without a pause in attacks on fuel and power, drought-hit areas face a harder winter.
Ukraine's winter. Kyiv's water supply was disrupted in all districts on Thursday after power outages. A deal in Abu Dhabi that limits strikes on energy would spare civilians the most.
Ebola in Congo. The outbreak has killed 5,376 people, 5,372 of them in Congo, among about 10,444 cases across Congo, Uganda and Kenya. The Bundibugyo strain has no approved vaccine or treatment.
Washington's lame duck. Federal funding runs out on Dec 11. Congress must choose between a full-year deal and a short extension that hands the fight to the incoming Democratic-controlled Congress.

Daily Sphere's read on what comes next, drawn from linked reporting.

Top 5

1Trump nears a decision on resuming the Iran war as Tehran sends a nuclear proposal through QatarMiddle East · WorldBrent, Thu settle $98.29Day 252Iranian claims

Trump said "Now we will make a decision" after meeting his national security team, and no order to resume operations had been issued, The National reported, citing Fox News. "I would rather not destroy the rest of the country if possible, but maybe I will have to," he said.
Iran has sent a nuclear proposal to Washington through Qatar, a senior Iranian official told Reuters, but says it will be discussed only after the US meets Tehran's seven demands. The official was not named and the contents were not given.
Iran's Revolutionary Guards and army claimed that five tankers and a tug caught fire in several incidents, including ships said to have hit mines, Al Jazeera reported. None was independently confirmed. UKMTO reported a tanker hit by two projectiles north of Qatar late Wednesday.

Both capitals are signalling at once: a threat of more force from Washington and a conditional offer from Tehran. Qatar is carrying Iran's proposal to Washington. An interim step that pauses attacks on ships in return for US concessions would lower risk for crews and importers while the harder issues are argued.

The National · Yahoo News (Reuters) · Al Jazeera

2Asia's markets crumble after Wall Street's worst day since April 2025Asia · WorldNikkei −6.0%Kospi −6.0%

Japan's Nikkei 225 closed at 57,434.77 and South Korea's Kospi at 5,059.69, both down 6.0%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 1.3%, AP reported. Taiwan fell 4.5%, and 12.2% for the week, its biggest weekly drop since 1991, Reuters reported.
On Thursday the S&P 500 fell 4.4% to 7,353.73 and the Nasdaq 5.5% to 24,315.00, AP reported. Reuters put the value lost at about $3 trillion for S&P 500 companies, with fears of tougher AI regulation after the midterms.
The Korea Exchange triggered a 20-minute circuit breaker as the Kospi fell as much as 8.8% during the day, Investing.com reported.

The sell-off is concentrated where the AI build-out is concentrated: US chip stocks and the Asian exporters that supply them. Until Washington's rules for data centres are clearer, that risk will keep moving these markets.

AP via DT Next · MarketScreener (Reuters) · AP via KSAT · Yahoo Finance (Investing.com)

3Sudan's drone war hits fuel stations across Kordofan as strikes reach Blue NileAfricaDay 1,302Local-source tolls

A drone strike on a fuel station in Taqali al-Abbasiya, South Kordofan, on Monday killed 16 people at first count, and local sources said the toll rose above 19 civilians, Darfur24 reported, attributing the strike to an RSF drone.
On Wednesday a drone believed to belong to the RSF destroyed two fuel stations in Al-Rahad Abu Dakna, North Kordofan, without casualties; on Tuesday an RSF drone killed at least two people in Damazin, Blue Nile, the same roundup said. Drones believed to be the army's killed two people each in Um Badr, North Kordofan, and Al-Malha, North Darfur.
An IPC alert in October said drought covers more than half of Sudan and less than half of the aid appeal had been funded, UN News reported.

Fuel runs the pumps, mills and generators that keep water and bread flowing, so these strikes hit civilians well beyond the blast. Both sides are using drones on economic targets. Mediators should press for a narrow, monitored ban on strikes against fuel, power and water sites, which costs neither side ground.

Darfur24 · UN News

4Kyiv's water fails after power cuts as Trump says a Ukraine deal may involve all of EuropeEuropeUkrainian and Russian claims

Water supply was disrupted in all districts of Kyiv on Thursday after power outages at the water utility, and the recovered toll from Monday's strike on Komyshuvakha reached 43 with 33 still missing, the Kyiv Independent reported.
Russia's defence ministry claimed hits on a postal terminal near Kharkiv and a cargo ship off Odesa, while Ryazan's governor said more than 200 Ukrainian drones attacked overnight, Al Jazeera reported.
Trump said of a settlement: "It's going to involve more than Ukraine, and I could even say it might involve all of Europe," ITV News reported. Jared Kushner said the US held talks in Brussels with Ukrainian, NATO and European partners on security guarantees ahead of Abu Dhabi, Yahoo News reported.

Kyiv Independent · Al Jazeera · ITV News · Yahoo News

5Eisenkot wins 67 recommendations to Netanyahu's 46 as Herzog prepares Sunday's callMiddle East

President Herzog said 67 lawmakers recommended Gadi Eisenkot of Yashar and 46 recommended Benjamin Netanyahu, and he will announce his decision on Sunday, the Times of Israel reported.
The Joint List, Ra'am and B'Yachad backed Eisenkot, while United Torah Judaism, with seven seats, declined to recommend Netanyahu, the same report said. Eisenkot's camp rules out a unity government with Netanyahu.

Who says what

Yoav Kisch, Likud

Called for a "broad national government".

Isaac Herzog, President

"If you want to extend a hand, you can't call it a 'disaster bloc.'" (to Likud's Miri Regev)

Times of Israel

The view

The AI sell-off is a bet on politics, and politics can answer it

Investors are pricing tougher rules on data centres after the midterms. Clear national rules would cost less than the uncertainty.

In Thursday's rout, about $3 trillion came off S&P 500 companies and Asia's chip-heavy markets fell hardest. Seoul and Tokyo each lost 6.0% on Friday and Taiwan had its worst week since 1991. Masahiko Loo of State Street called it "a reassessment of AI policy risk" rather than of the AI cycle.

The trigger is political. Democrats won both chambers, and local voters backed bans or pauses on data centres in most ballot measures put to them. Power bills tied to data centres have become a kitchen-table issue. Investors who priced a build-out without limits are now pricing limits.

The costs land unevenly. Savers in Korea and Taiwan hold markets dominated by a few chipmakers. Towns that host data centres carry the grid strain, while the gains go to shareholders far away. Uncertainty itself slows investment: a company cannot plan a ten-year plant around rules that may change county by county.

What would work is a federal bargain the new Congress and the White House can both sign: data centres pay for the grid capacity they use, disclose water and power demand, and get predictable permits in return. That would turn a vague political risk into a known cost, which markets can price and communities can accept.

Closing changes, rounded to one decimal. Nasdaq Thursday Nov 5; Asian markets Friday Nov 6. From AP, AP and Reuters (Taiwan).

Daily Sphere's analysis, drawn from: MarketScreener (Reuters) · AP via DT Next · AP via KSAT · Fast Company

From X & beyond

“This looks more like a reassessment of AI policy risk than a reassessment of the AI cycle.”Masahiko Loo, chief fixed-income strategist, State Street Investment Management · Nov 6

Loo was explaining the sell-off that hit Asian chipmakers after Wall Street's slump. His reading is that investors fear tighter US rules on AI and data centres rather than an end to demand.

Post: MarketScreener (Reuters)

“As long as they do not execute our seven conditions, we will neither open the Strait of Hormuz nor have negotiations”Mohsen Rezaei, Iran's top security official · Nov 5, in Russia

Rezaei spoke as an Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran had sent a nuclear proposal to Washington through Qatar. Iran says the proposal will be discussed only after its demands, which include lifting sanctions, releasing frozen assets and war reparations, are met.

Post: Yahoo News (Reuters)

“A summit that shelves denuclearisation would undermine deterrence and create policy friction”Leif-Eric Easley, professor of international studies, Ewha Womans University · Nov 6

Reuters analysed whether Trump might court North Korea again after his midterm losses. Officials in Seoul and Tokyo oppose any concession on denuclearisation, and Pyongyang says it sees no need for talks now.

Post: Yahoo News (Reuters)

“The problem is that the energy grid is not stable and is being repaired at the moment.”Oleksandr Kharchenko, director, Energy Industry Research Center · Nov 5

Kharchenko was explaining why water failed across Kyiv after power fluctuations. Russia carried out its largest attack on Ukraine's energy system this year on Nov 3.

Post: Kyiv Independent

“A lower path would have grown more confidence.”Jimmy Jean, chief economist, Desjardins Group · Nov 5

Jean was reacting to Canada's budget, which projects a C$62.3bn deficit for 2026-27. He was referring to the deficit path in the years ahead.

Post: Yahoo News (National Post)

Infographic

Refugees

Two in three refugees live in poorer countries

Of 41.6 million refugees at the end of 2025, low- and middle-income countries hosted 68%. Most live in a country next to the one they fled.

Hosted in low- and middle-income countriesHosted in high-income countries

Refugees, end-2025

41.6 million in all

Each icon = 1 million refugees.

117.8mPeople forcibly displaced worldwide at end-2025

68.7mDisplaced inside their own countries

65%Of refugees and others needing protection hosted by a neighbouring country

UNHCR figures for end-December 2025. 68% of 41.6 million is about 28.3 million; shown as 28 of 42 icons, each about 1 million people, rounded.

Sources: UNHCR

Latest updates

South Africa's ANC leads the national count but trails in three big citiesNov 6AfricaSingle sourceProvisional

With 71% of votes counted, the ANC had just under 32% nationally, ahead of the DA and MK, The Witness reported from the electoral commission's dashboard.
On partial counts (39-65% of votes in), the DA led in Tshwane and Johannesburg and MK led in eThekwini. Final results are expected over the weekend.

If the ANC loses its grip on the big cities, coalition councils will run the budgets for water, power and roads. South Africa's record with city coalitions has been unstable, and residents pay when they collapse.

The Witness

Hundreds of thousands march in France over pay and the 2027 budgetNov 5EuropeCounts differ

Authorities estimated about 600,000 protesters and unions said more than 1.5 million, Euronews reported. More than 70,000 police were deployed, and the National Assembly rejected the first part of the budget on Nov 4.
Police fired tear gas in Lyon, and a G7 foreign ministers' meeting was moved from Marseille to Paris, Al Jazeera reported, citing Reuters.

Euronews · Al Jazeera

UN staff member dies in Houthi detention as displacement grows in TaizNov 5Middle East

Mohammad el Shami died while arbitrarily detained by the Houthi de facto authorities, the second UN colleague to die in their custody, UN News reported. The UN calls for an investigation.
Nearly 135,000 people are now displaced within Taiz, more than 40% of all those recently uprooted across Yemen, the same report said.

The Houthis still hold UN staff the UN says are arbitrarily detained. Releasing them would be the clearest sign they want aid to reach the people they govern.

UN News

Hoax bomb threats hit about a dozen flights across EuropeNov 5EuropeSingle source

An Aer Lingus flight from Dublin to Rome was diverted to Evreux in France under military escort, and other incidents were reported in Bulgaria, Czechia, Belgium, Austria and Italy, Al Jazeera reported. No devices were found and no one has claimed responsibility.

Al Jazeera

Tesla will wind down Cybertruck production in Texas by mid-2027, Musk saysNov 6Americas

Musk said on X that the Texas plant will end Cybertruck output around the middle of next year to make room for the Cybercab, Reuters reported. Tesla's "Other Models" deliveries, which include the Cybertruck, fell to 8,295 in the third quarter from 12,364 in the second.

Investing.com (Reuters) · TimesLIVE (Reuters)

Feature · Central banks

War inflation splits the world's central banks

Three European banks raised rates this week to fight inflation, while Mexico cut and Norway held. Borrowers and savers face very different winters depending on where they live.

UK Bank Rate after the first hike since 20234.00%Bank of England, 8-1 vote, Nov 5

Czech policy rate after a 4-3 vote4.00%Czech National Bank, Nov 5

Mexico's policy rate after a surprise cut6.25%Banxico, 3-2 vote, Nov 5

Fed decision, with US CPI due Nov 10Dec 9Fed funds now 3.75%-4%

The Iran war has pushed up fuel costs, but central banks are reading it differently. The Bank of England, Sweden's Riksbank and the Czech National Bank raised rates this week. Norway held at 4.5% and said rates would likely need to stay elevated for a time. Mexico cut, calling it a one-off.

Those who pay are borrowers in the hiking countries, especially households on variable mortgages, and firms already squeezed by energy bills. Those who gain are savers there, and borrowers in Mexico, though a weaker peso raises import costs.

What connects them is the oil price. Brent was on track for a weekly fall of about 12% after the midterm results, widely read as a rebuke of the Iran war. Where it goes next will shape the next round of decisions, starting with the Fed on Dec 9.

MoneyWeek (BoE) · Expats.cz · The Rio Times · Norges Bank · The Local · Yahoo Finance · The National (oil)

MoneyDebt, deficits, taxes and what governments spend

Czech central bank raises rates to 4% on a 4-3 voteEuropeSingle source

The Czech National Bank raised its rate by a quarter point to 4%, its second hike this year, cut its 2026 growth forecast to 1.7% and raised its 2027 inflation forecast to 3.2%, Expats.cz reported.

Prague moved the same day as the Bank of England, which raised rates to 4% on Nov 5. A split vote shows how close the call is when growth is already slowing.

Expats.cz

Mexico's central bank surprises with a cut to 6.25%AmericasSingle source

Banxico cut its rate by a quarter point to 6.25% in a 3-2 vote and called it a "one-off adjustment", signalling a long hold, The Rio Times reported. The peso weakened to 18.76 per dollar. The next decision is Dec 17.

Mexico is cutting while Prague and London raise rates, betting that spare capacity in the economy matters more than inflation still above its 3% target. A weaker peso is one cost.

The Rio Times

Congress returns facing a Dec 11 funding deadline and a debt-limit questionAmericasSingle source

The stopgap that funds the government expires on Dec 11, and Republicans must choose between a full-year bill and a short extension into the new Democratic House, HNGN reported. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has said a debt-limit increase could come in the lame duck.
The administration is also seeking a record $1.5 trillion for the military, the report said.

HNGN

Turkey's lira sits near 50 to the dollar after the first cut since the Iran war beganMiddle EastSingle source

The dollar rose above 50 lira on the interbank market on Nov 3, a record, after the central bank cut its rate by 100 basis points to 36% in October, Trading Economics reported. October inflation was 29.77%.

Trading Economics

GeopoliticsWho is aligning with whom, where they clash, and what's been agreed

Trump may court North Korea again after the midterms, but Seoul and Tokyo are waryAsiaSingle source

US and South Korean officials see fading chances of a meeting this year, and Pyongyang has not responded, Reuters reported in an analysis. Kim Yo Jong said the North sees no need for talks now.
White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said Trump's foreign policy decisions "have never been motivated by politics".

A summit for its own sake would hand Pyongyang recognition without limits on its arsenal. Officials in Seoul and Tokyo fear being "cut out of the loop" if Trump deals directly with Kim.

Yahoo News (Reuters)

Lebanese pack bags and stock up as fears of a new Israeli escalation growMiddle EastMinistry figuresSingle source

Residents of Beirut's southern suburbs and the south are stockpiling, fearing escalation tied to possible strikes on Iran, Al Jazeera reported. Israeli officials accuse the Lebanese army of failing its duties under the June framework deal, which the army denies.
Lebanon's health ministry says about 9,000 people have been killed by Israel since October 2023.

Lebanon is the front most likely to reignite if the Iran war resumes. Steady US mediation on the June framework is the best guard against a new round.

Al Jazeera

Gaza ministry says more than 1,600 killed since the ceasefire as strikes continueMiddle EastMinistry claimsSingle source

At least four Palestinians, including a child, were killed in central and southern Gaza on Thursday, medical sources said, Al Jazeera reported. Gaza's health ministry says 1,602 people have been killed since the ceasefire of Oct 11, 2025.

Al Jazeera

Russian and Ukrainian officials meet at the White House over a local truceEuropeSingle source

Melania Trump hosted Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev and Ukrainian officials including David Arakhamia to mark a six-day truce in Oleshky that let nearly 800 people leave, Al Jazeera reported. Pope Leo XIV also pressed both sides, and accounts of who brokered it differ.

Al Jazeera

Chart of the day

America led 2025's record fall in aid

Change in official development assistance, 2025 vs 2024, real terms

The five largest donors and the DAC total, from the OECD's preliminary 2025 data published in April 2026. Total DAC aid was $174.3bn; the OECD called the fall the largest on record.

Law & businessCourt rulings, regulation, rules and the big corporate moves

EU's top court overturns annulment of €3.4bn Dutch Covid aid to KLMEurope

The Court of Justice set aside a 2024 General Court ruling that had annulled the Commission's approval of the aid after a challenge by Ryanair, and sent the case back to the General Court, Reuters reported. It dismissed Ryanair's appeal over €321m of German aid to Condor.
Air France-KLM says all its Covid aid was repaid with interest by 2023.

The ruling found legal errors in the lower court's rejection of the Commission's emergency approval, leaving Brussels room to act fast in a crisis.

Global Banking & Finance (Reuters) · Air France-KLM

Washington judge orders Albertsons to pay $900m over the opioid crisisAmericasSingle source

Judge Janet Helson of King County Superior Court ordered $800m to abate the epidemic plus $100m in penalties after a bench trial, AOL reported. Albertsons denies wrongdoing and is considering an appeal.

Grocery chains with pharmacies are now in the same legal frame as drugmakers and distributors. An appeal will test whether abatement awards this large survive.

AOL

US Treasury sanctions 46 targets tied to the Prince Group scam networkAsia

OFAC designated four people and 41 entities in Hong Kong, the British Virgin Islands, Singapore, Mauritius, Malaysia and Cambodia, plus a Malaysian accused of running a scam network from Madagascar, Treasury said. The US embassy in Nairobi said the network trafficked "Kenyans and others abroad into forced labor", AllAfrica reported.

Scam compounds run on trafficked labour from Africa and Asia. Sanctions bite only if Cambodia and the financial hubs that host these companies enforce them.

US Treasury · AllAfrica

South Korea proposes fines of up to 6% of related revenue for dominant firms that keep prices highAsiaSingle source

The Fair Trade Commission's draft decree would let it fine dominant refiners that keep fuel prices high after crude falls and delivery apps that block merchants from selling directly, Seoul Economic Daily reported. Public comments run until Dec 16.

Seoul Economic Daily

US widens Cuba sanctions to two tankers and a Chinese state-owned firmAmericasSingle source

OFAC listed four Cuban state firms in oil services, equipment and shipping, the tankers Emilia and Gloria C, and Beijing H&C Technologies, which the outlet describes as state-owned, and issued a sector determination that lets it sanction firms in Cuba's electronics, manufacturing, marine and technology sectors, including outside Cuba, The Rio Times reported.

The Rio Times