Daily SphereMoney · geopolitics · news analysis
Mon Nov 2Morning edition · 5:59 AM ET‹ Sun
Daily Sphere Brief · What comes nextElection week: a US vote, an Iran decision and a run of rate callsAmericans vote Tuesday, Australia and Brazil set rates, Canada and France fight over budgets, and Washington weighs talks or strikes on Iran once the count is in.
53.1mEarly ballots cast before Tuesday's US voteUF count via Al Jazeera, Nov 1
$109.66Brent on Monday, down 3.3%AP, early Nov 2
4.60%Australia's cash rate before Tuesday's decisionRBA Rate Watch

This week

  • Tue · US midterms and the RBA. Americans choose a new House and a third of the Senate after more than 53 million early ballots. Australia's central bank decides the same day, with futures pricing a 69% chance of a hike from 4.60%.
  • Wed · Brazil's rate call. Brazil's Copom decides with the Selic at 13.75%; options price a 63% chance of a hold. Inflation running above the target band argues for patience.
  • Wed · Israel's coalition. Final results go to President Herzog. Netanyahu's bloc holds 53 seats and Eisenkot's 48, both short of 61, so Arab-led parties and a possible unity deal decide who governs.
  • Thu · Canada and France. Ottawa tables its budget as the budget office expects a 2030-31 deficit above $63bn. French unions, led by the CGT, start a general strike against the 2027 budget.

Storylines to watch

  • Hormuz, day 248. Oil fell on reports Trump will give talks more time before any new strikes, while Tehran says the strait stays shut until the US blockade ends. The week after the vote is the test.
  • Sudan, day 1,298. A year after El Fasher fell, only a fraction of its people have returned and thousands are missing. Funding for aid convoys into Darfur, not new statements, decides the winter.
  • Ebola in Congo. Government figures put deaths above 5,000; Kenya expects 46 contacts to leave quarantine on Tuesday. WHO still advises against travel or trade restrictions on affected countries.
  • Ukraine's winter. A local truce near Oleshky expired on Sunday and both sides are again striking energy targets. Technical talks in Abu Dhabi, which Zelensky says are planned for the first half of November, are the next marker.
  • Poland's court fight. The European Commission says appointing new judges lies within the Sejm's power, backing the government against President Nawrocki. Jarosław Kaczyński says Poland is "becoming a police state".

Daily Sphere's read on what comes next, drawn from linked reporting.

Top 5

1Oil drops 3% on reports Trump will give Iran talks more time; Tehran says Washington must move firstMiddle East · WorldBrent −3.3%WTI −3.3%Day 248
  • Brent fell to $109.66 and WTI to $100.64 early on Monday, AP reported. The National, citing Axios, said Trump told Prime Minister Netanyahu he wanted to give diplomacy more time, holding off on any new strikes at least until after Tuesday's midterms.
  • Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said messages with Washington continue but the strait will not reopen until the US naval blockade ends and Iran's "legitimate demands" are met. Secretary of State Rubio said on Saturday that no decision on renewed strikes had been made.
  • UKMTO said a tanker was hit by two projectiles about 72 nautical miles east of Ras Al Khafji, Saudi Arabia, at 23:47 GMT on Sunday, Iran International reported. All crew were accounted for.

A price that falls on one reported phone call can rise on the next. What markets want is a process with dates: a monitored corridor, clearances both sides honour, and a timetable linking the blockade to the strait. Until then the risk stays with crews and with importers least able to pay.

The National · AP via ClickOnDetroit · Al Jazeera live · Euronews · Iran International

2A year after El Fasher fell to the RSF, few have returned and thousands are missingAfricaDay 1,298
  • The North Darfur capital fell on Oct 26, 2025, after a siege of about 500 days. The UN estimates about 6,000 people were killed; researchers using satellite images suspect tens of thousands. IOM says nearly 100,000 fled.
  • Solidarités International estimates 40,000 to 60,000 people have returned or move in and out, from a pre-war population of at least 300,000. Rights groups reported 13,000 to 19,500 people held in Dagris prison earlier this year against a capacity of 4,500; about 73 medics are detained in Dagris and Kober, a doctors' network says.
  • The UN says drone strikes are now the leading killer of civilians. In Nyala, the share of children treated for severe acute malnutrition rose from 5% to 11% between January and August.

El Fasher shows what happens when a siege ends without protection for the people inside. Access for monitors to the prisons, and a count of the missing, would be the first test of any truce. Aid money for Darfur is the rest.

RFI via allAfrica · Al Jazeera

3Americans vote Tuesday after more than 53 million early ballotsAmericas
  • 53.14 million ballots had been cast by early Sunday, 29 million in person and 23 million by mail, according to a University of Florida count. The comparable 2022 figure was 46 million.
  • Early voting is up sharply in states including South Carolina, Maine, Kansas and Michigan. The RealClearPolling generic-ballot average stood at 51.4% for Democrats and 43.2% for Republicans.

Al Jazeera · Al Jazeera

4Xi and Oman's sultan call for safe passage through Hormuz in BeijingAsia · Middle East
  • Sultan Haitham bin Tariq is on the first visit to China by an Omani head of state since ties began in 1978. A 20-point joint statement calls for normal, safe navigation through Hormuz to resume.
  • The statement urges the US and Iran to return to the agreement reached in June and restart dialogue. China's Middle East envoy Zhai Jun will visit Iran, Oman and Saudi Arabia this month, The National reports.

Oman has carried messages between Washington and Tehran for years, and China buys much of the Gulf's oil. Their joint call adds weight to talks without adding a plan. The useful role for Beijing is pressing Tehran on the same checkable steps others ask of Washington.

The National · Al-Monitor/Reuters

5Drones reportedly hit a major Russian oil hub in Samara as a local truce near Kherson endsEuropeMilitary claims
  • Drones struck Transneft's Samara pumping and storage station overnight, The Moscow Times and Kyiv Post report, citing local accounts and imagery. The site has 71 tanks and feeds the Druzhba pipeline; the governor confirmed an attack but named no target. Russia's defence ministry says it downed 212 drones.
  • A truce around Oleshky ran from Oct 27 to Sunday night; Ukraine says it evacuated 167 civilians, including 22 children. Zelensky says Ukraine, Russia and the US have agreed to technical talks in Abu Dhabi in the first half of November.

The Moscow Times · Kyiv Post · Kyiv Independent · Khaleej Times

The view

Oil is pricing a Hormuz deal that nobody has signed

Brent fell on a reported Trump message to Netanyahu. The strait is still shut, and ships are still being hit.

0%10%+15%October-3.3%Monday morning

Brent fell 3.3% to about $110 early Monday after reports that President Trump wants to give diplomacy with Iran more time, with any new strikes held until after Tuesday's US midterm elections. In October it rose about 15%. Traders are now pricing a better outcome than the facts on the water support.

Iran's foreign ministry says the strait will not reopen until the US lifts its naval blockade. Late on Sunday a tanker was hit by two projectiles off Saudi Arabia. China and Oman added their voices in Beijing, calling for safe passage and a return to June's agreement, but brought no new mechanism.

Swings like this have costs. Importers that budget for fuel face a price that rose about 15% in October and fell more than 3% in a morning. Crews still sail through waters where, the US military says, Iranian attacks have killed more than 20 civilian mariners; Tehran denies attacking civilians.

What would work is a sequence both sides can verify: a named corridor under monitors, clearances that protect ships once given, and easing of the blockade in step with reopening. Qatar, already hosting talks, and Oman could act as guarantors. A price built on that would hold.

October gain is approximate ("about 15%", The National); Monday from AP, early trading.

Daily Sphere's analysis, drawn from: The National · AP via ClickOnDetroit · Iran International · The National

From X & beyond

“The Middle East Gulf region should not become an arena for great-power rivalry and geopolitical conflict.”Xi Jinping, President of China · Beijing, Nov 2

Said to Oman's Sultan Haitham, per China's foreign ministry. Their joint statement calls for safe navigation through Hormuz to resume.

Post: Al-Monitor/Reuters

“We've had such a victory, and we'll put it away very soon, one way or the other.”Donald Trump, US President · RSBN interview before an Iowa rally, Nov 1

The remark leaves both talks and strikes open. Reports that he wants more time for diplomacy pushed oil down more than 3% on Monday.

Post: The National

“Record freight costs, constrained tanker capacity, and recovering Chinese imports”Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst, UBS · Nov 2

His list of what keeps oil prices high even as talks raise hopes. UBS expects Brent near $110 at year-end.

Post: The National

“Only a fraction of the population has returned; people are too afraid”Laura Mills, researcher, Amnesty International · RFI, Nov 1

On El Fasher a year after the RSF took the city. Solidarités International estimates 40,000 to 60,000 people have returned or move in and out.

Post: RFI via allAfrica

“A big Democratic lead in House generic ballot polling suggests that the House is almost certain to flip to Democrats”Kyle Kondik, managing editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball · Al Jazeera, Oct 31

He added that the Senate "is much more up in the air." Control of Congress shapes war powers, budgets and trade policy for the next two years.

Post: Al Jazeera

Infographic

Hunger

Nearly one in four people analysed in Congo face acute hunger

About 28.8 million people in DR Congo face crisis-level hunger or worse through December, the IPC says. That could rise to 30.3 million in the first half of 2027.

Acute hunger (IPC 3+)Rest of population analysed
23%of the population analysed in IPC Phase 3 or worse, through December 2026
28.8mPeople in crisis or worse now
3.6m+In emergency (Phase 4)
30.3mProjected for January to June 2027

Share is the IPC's own figure for the population analysed (23%), shown as 23 of 100 icons. Projection includes 4.2 million in Phase 4.

Sources: UN News via allAfrica (IPC)

Latest updates

Kenya prepares to release 46 Ebola contacts; Nigeria isolates two new suspected casesAfricaPartly single source
  • Kenya says it has had no new cases in 10 days and 46 contacts leave quarantine on Nov 3. In Nigeria, two new suspected cases await lab results, Pulse Nigeria reports, as Congo's death toll passes 5,000.

Kenya's quarantine is the template: find contacts fast and release them on schedule. WHO advises against travel bans, which punish countries that report honestly.

Capital FM via allAfrica · Pulse Nigeria · WHO

Up to 50,000 flee Ethiopian border clashes into KenyaAfrica
  • UNHCR's Kenya representative cites a local estimate of up to 50,000 people fleeing fighting around Moyale, up from a UN count of 36,000 days earlier. The clashes stem from a dispute between Ethiopia's Oromia and Somali regions; gunfire was heard across the border on Oct 30.

This is a regional dispute turning into a cross-border emergency. Food, water and shelter for the arrivals are the immediate needs; a truce between the two regions is the real fix.

UNHCR via allAfrica · AP via Africanews

Ukraine's air-raid alert app hacked with false nuclear warningsEuropeGovernment claim
  • Sirens and phone alerts falsely warned of nuclear, chemical and street-fighting threats late on Sunday. The air force said the Air Alert app was likely compromised and warned of phishing links. The air force blamed "the enemy" without naming a country.

Kyiv Independent

Unidentified object enters Latvian airspace near Russia and BelarusEuropeMilitary claim
  • The military launched an interceptor drone near Kraslava and Ludza on Sunday; the alert ended within an hour and the object's origin is unclear. Drones have recently entered Lithuanian and Romanian airspace.

Kyiv Independent

Feature · Who gains from the AI boom

Korea's chip exports hit a record as Wall Street doubts AI spending

One AI story, two markets. US tech shares sold off on Friday; South Korea's chip exports had their best month ever and Seoul's stocks rallied on Monday.

Gains$56.4bnKorean chip exports in October, up 259% on a year earlier
Gains+2.24%Kospi on Monday, after opening 1.62% lower
Pays−29%Intel on Friday, almost 29% down, its worst day since 1974 (AP)
Watch$1trnKorea's annual exports could pass it as early as November, the trade ministry says

South Korea exported $115.3bn of goods in October, a monthly record, and chips were nearly half of it. Sales to both the US and China more than doubled. Monday's rally in Seoul followed Friday's slide in New York, where the Nasdaq fell 2.86% and Intel lost more than a quarter of its value.

The split shows where the AI money lands. Investors worry that huge and rising AI spending may not earn sufficient returns, Reuters reports, but that spending is revenue today for the firms that make memory chips. A US slowdown in capital spending would reach Korea fast; until then, the boom props up Asia's export economies through an oil shock.

Korea Times · Korea Times · AP via Yahoo Finance · Reuters via Yahoo Finance

MoneyDebt, deficits, taxes and what governments spend

Canada tables its budget Thursday as the budget office sees a bigger deficitAmericas
  • Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne presents Prime Minister Carney's second budget on Nov 5. The Parliamentary Budget Officer expects a 2030-31 deficit above $63bn, against $53bn projected in the spring, and says the target of balancing the operating budget by 2027-28 will slip a year.
  • The PBO projects defence spending rising from about $75bn to $95.7bn by 2030-31.

Ottawa is raising defence spending and chasing new trade at the same time. Markets will look for a credible path for debt, not just a new operating-budget definition.

BNN Bloomberg

Brazil's central bank is expected to hold the Selic at 13.75% on WednesdayAmericasSingle source
  • Options on B3 priced a 63.1% chance of a hold and 28% of a quarter-point cut at the Oct 26 close. Annual IPCA-15 inflation of 4.62% in October sits above the 4.5% ceiling of the target band.

A hold would signal the bank wants inflation back inside its band before cutting again. Government fiscal plans will shape how soon cuts resume.

Rankia Brasil · MercoPress

China's private factory gauge stays in growth despite weak official dataAsiaSingle source
  • The RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 52.0 in October, against 52.1 in September, the 11th month above 50. Selling prices fell and business sentiment hit a nine-month low; the official factory gauge was 49.3.

Trading Economics

US Treasuries post their best month in nearly three yearsAmericas
  • The 10-year yield fell about 37 basis points in October, the biggest monthly drop since December 2023, amid worries that rising AI spending may not deliver returns.

Reuters via Yahoo Finance · Federal Reserve H.15

GeopoliticsWho is aligning with whom, where they clash, and what's been agreed

European Commission backs Tusk's government in Poland's court standoffEurope
  • A Commission spokesperson said appointing eight new members of the Constitutional Tribunal "lies within the constitutional power of the Sejm". President Nawrocki entered the tribunal building on Oct 31 alongside the Supreme Court's first president; Jarosław Kaczyński said Poland is "becoming a police state".

Brussels taking a side helps the government legally but hardens the opposition at home. A neutral mediator is still the only route to one court both camps accept.

Kyiv Independent · Euronews

US officials promoted a plan for Russian gas to flow to Europe through Ukraine, WSJ saysEuropeSingle source
  • Envoys Kushner and Witkoff pushed the idea in Moscow and Kyiv in September, with gas sold through a US intermediary, the report says. It was shelved in October; EU gas prices are the highest in almost four years, and the EU plans to phase out Russian gas in 2027.

Cheap gas would ease Europe's winter but cut against its own phase-out law and its sanctions logic. Expect the idea to return whenever Washington and Moscow talk energy.

Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance

Israel's election results go to Herzog Wednesday with no bloc near a majorityMiddle East
  • Final results give Netanyahu's bloc 53 seats, Eisenkot's 48 and Arab-led parties 19, on turnout of 77.9%. President Herzog has said he would back a unity government between Netanyahu and Eisenkot.

Ynet · Al Jazeera · Al-Monitor

Chart of the day

Israel's Knesset: no bloc has the 61 seats to govern

Seats in the 120-member Knesset, complete count (certification due Nov 4)0204053Netanyahu bloc48Eisenkot bloc19Arab-led parties

Sources: Al Jazeera and Ynet, complete count. A majority is 61.

Law & businessCourt rulings, regulation, rules and the big corporate moves

US judge bars federal pressure on local election workersAmericas
  • Judge Trina Thompson issued a temporary restraining order on Oct 30 barring DOJ and DHS officials from coercing election workers to halt ballot processing or remove voters from rolls based solely on claims they are ineligible, finding a likely Voting Rights Act violation. Plaintiffs include SEIU and the NAACP.
  • She ordered the government to tell recipients of its letters that the demands are blocked. The Justice Department called it "a two-track system of justice" and is evaluating its options.

Fox News/Reuters via Yahoo

Appeals court again refuses to set aside nearly 20,000 California mail ballotsAmericasSingle source
  • A Ninth Circuit panel ruled 2-1 on Oct 30, citing the risk of "disenfranchisement of eligible voters"; it was the second such rejection in a week. The Justice Department, which sued California on Oct 15, had asked for the ballots to be set aside; no Supreme Court filing had been reported.

Al Jazeera

Paris appeals court upholds interim curbs on Meta over news paymentsEurope
  • The court rejected Meta's appeals against measures from France's competition authority requiring it to resume talks with publishers, share data on its use of their content and not degrade how news appears. Meta is assessing next steps; the authority's full case continues.

Europe's regulators are pressing platforms to negotiate for news. The French authority's full ruling will set the price signal.

Reuters via The Star

Evonik rejects BASF's raised €11.2bn bidEuropeSingle source
  • BASF raised its offer to €24 a share; Evonik's board declined formal talks, asked BASF to explain its rationale and said it remains focused on independence. BASF expressed surprise.

Reuters via Devdiscourse

ICC holds a status conference in Duterte's case ahead of a Nov 30 trialAsiaSingle source
  • Trial Chamber III meets on Monday on witness and evidence questions; Duterte waived attendance. He faces three counts of crimes against humanity over his drug war.

Trying a former head of state for a drug war will test the court's reach in Asia. The Nov 30 opening, with his plea, is the next marker.

Astig.ph