Daily SphereMoney · geopolitics · news analysis
Tue Nov 3Morning edition · 5:50 AM ET‹ Mon
Daily Sphere Brief · What comes nextAfter the US vote: rate rises, Iran talks and a date in Abu DhabiThe count may run past Wednesday as Brazil and Britain set rates, Canada and Washington show their borrowing, and Ukraine talks are set for Nov 10-11.
4.85%Australia's cash rate after Tuesday's hike, the highest since 2008ABC News, Nov 3
$106.58Brent on Tuesday, up 1.7% after US strikes in HormuzAP, Nov 3
~75%Futures odds of a Fed rate hike in DecemberKitco, Nov 2

This week

Storylines to watch

  • Hormuz, day 249. US strikes on Qeshm Island came as Qatari mediators carried a draft deal to Tehran. Whether Washington holds off further strikes after the vote is the next signal.
  • Sudan, day 1,299. Drones are now hitting power substations far from the front. Watch whether the Security Council takes up Khartoum's complaint against Ethiopia.
  • Ebola in Congo. Deaths have passed 5,370 and the fatality ratio is above 50%. US entry attestations start tonight; whether the vaccine trial and contact tracing keep pace is our test for the month.
  • Ukraine's winter. Overnight strikes knocked out three thermal plants. The Kremlin confirms talks in Abu Dhabi on Nov 10-11, a chance to test a pause on energy strikes.
  • Poland's court fight. The government suspended the tribunal's chief judge on Oct 30 and the Commission backs the Sejm on appointing judges. President Nawrocki's crisis talks brought no breakthrough.

Daily Sphere's read on what comes next, drawn from linked reporting.

Top 5

1US strikes Iran's Qeshm Island as Tehran says a deal is still far offMiddle East · WorldBrent +1.7%Day 249
  • A US official said late Monday that US forces struck Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz, describing them as limited and not a resumption of major combat operations, the Times of Israel reported. A second official called them defensive, against Iranian surface-to-air missiles aimed at US assets.
  • Qatari mediators flew to Tehran on Monday night with a version of the draft deal. A senior Iranian official told Reuters the sides remain far apart and that nuclear talks would come only after Hormuz reopens. Iran could reopen the strait within two days if its demands are met, the Times of Israel reported: an end to the war on all fronts, unfrozen assets, lifted oil sanctions and an end to the US counter-blockade of Iranian ports.
  • Brent rose 1.7% to $106.58 and WTI 1.5% to $97.88 on Tuesday, AP reported, after Brent fell 7.6% on Monday.

Each side is testing how much force the other will absorb while it talks. The danger is a strike that kills sailors or crew and closes the window. Clear rules at sea, agreed through the Qatari channel, would lower that risk more than another round of signals.

Times of Israel · Asharq Al-Awsat (Reuters) · AP via WSLS

2Russia hits Ukraine's grid and a Kharkiv hospital; the toll in Komyshuvakha rises to 29EuropeUkrainian figures
  • Zelensky said Russia launched 289 attack drones, 17 ballistic missiles and 59 cruise missiles overnight, mainly at power plants and substations in nine regions. The air force said 257 drones were shot down. DTEK said three thermal power plants went offline, and more than 180,000 people in Zhytomyr region lost power.
  • In Kharkiv a strike damaged the cardiology department of a city clinical hospital; Zelensky said 73 people were injured. Russia's defence ministry said it targeted energy facilities.
  • In Komyshuvakha, Zaporizhzhia region, regional head Mykhailo Semikin said 29 people were killed and 48 are missing after Monday's strikes on the village.

Russia is again aiming at heat and light as winter starts, and people in front-line villages pay first. Interceptors and spare transformers decide how many homes stay warm. The Abu Dhabi talks on Nov 10-11 are the place to test a moratorium on energy strikes before any wider deal.

Al Jazeera · UNN (Zelensky) · UNN (Komyshuvakha) · Euromaidan Press

3Drones knock out Sudan's power substations as Khartoum accuses Ethiopia at the UNAfricaDay 1,299Government claims
  • Drones reportedly hit three substations on Monday, at New Halfa and Aroma in Kassala state and al-Ghazali in Northern State, causing wide outages, Al Jazeera reported, though it could not independently verify the reports. It counts 18 strikes on the power network in a week.
  • Sudan complained to the UN Security Council and the African Union on Nov 1 that RSF drones are launched from Ethiopian soil. It names Asosa airport and the Bahir Dar air base as launch sites; those claims are unverified, and Ethiopia denies involvement.
  • The UN counts more than 1,100 people killed by drones in Sudan in the first half of 2026. Fewer than 70,000 people now live in El Fasher, down from more than 1 million before the war.

Hitting substations cuts water pumps and hospitals as well as lights, so the cost reaches civilians far from the fighting. A quarrel with Ethiopia could widen a war that has already displaced about 14 million. An independent inquiry backed by the AU would test the accusation before it hardens into a regional conflict.

Al Jazeera · The Rio Times · Arab News

4Australia raises rates to 4.85%, the highest since 2008, in a split voteAsia-PacificCash rate +25bpAUD −0.3%
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by a quarter point to 4.85%, its fifth increase this year. Six board members voted to raise and three to hold, ABC News reported.
  • The board said inflation is elevated and "broadly based". It now expects inflation to fall below 3% only in late 2027, about three quarters later than it forecast before.
  • Governor Michele Bullock said "I don't know what the next move will be." The Australian dollar fell 0.3% to 69.76 US cents.

ABC News · ABC News live

5Americans vote for the House, 35 Senate seats and 36 governorsAmericas
  • All 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and 36 governorships are on the ballot, CBS News reports. Republicans hold a narrow House majority and a 53-47 Senate majority.
  • More than 54 million people voted early, according to the University of Florida's election lab. Before Election Day in 2022, 45.9 million had voted.
  • Voters also decide a one-time 5% tax on billionaires in California, redistricting measures in Maryland and Missouri, and voter-ID measures in four states.

CBS News · CBS News live · Asharq Al-Awsat

The view

The oil shock is pushing central banks back to rate rises

Australia raised rates to an 18-year high on Tuesday. Britain may follow on Thursday, and US futures price a hike in December.

0%2%4%4.85%Australia (Nov 3)4%US Fed, upper bound3.75%UK (decides Nov 5)2.5%Canada (Oct 28)

Australia's central bank raised its cash rate to 4.85% on Tuesday, the highest since 2008, in a 6-3 vote. Canada raised rates a week earlier. Most economists in an October Reuters poll expect the Bank of England to raise on Thursday, and US futures put the odds of a Federal Reserve hike in December near 75%.

The common thread is inflation that will not fade. Governor Bullock said the RBA is not tightening because of oil's direct effect on prices; her worries are domestic demand and the risk that lasting high fuel costs get passed on and lift inflation expectations. The RBA now sees inflation above 3% until late 2027.

Higher rates land first on households with variable mortgages and on governments with heavy debt. They also pull money toward rich-country bonds and away from poorer fuel importers already paying more for every barrel.

What would work is restraint on both sides of the ledger. Central banks should move in small, clearly explained steps. Finance ministers should target help at the poorest households rather than broad fuel subsidies that feed demand. A credible Hormuz deal could do more for inflation than any rate decision.

Australia from ABC News; Fed range 3.75-4.00% from Kitco; UK Bank Rate from HomeOwners Alliance; Canada from the Bank of Canada.

Daily Sphere's analysis, drawn from: ABC News · ABC News live · Bank of Canada · HomeOwners Alliance · Kitco

From X & beyond

“Inflation is too high, and our forecasts suggest it will stay higher for longer.”Michele Bullock, Governor, Reserve Bank of Australia · Sydney, Nov 3

Said after the RBA raised its cash rate to 4.85% in a 6-3 vote. She also said "I don't know what the next move will be."

Post: ABC News live

“The ball is now in America's court to prevent war.”Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, Speaker of Iran's parliament and chief negotiator · Nov 3

Said as Qatari mediators took a draft deal to Tehran and the US struck Qeshm Island. Iran says Hormuz reopens only once its conditions are met.

Post: Times of Israel

“Ukraine must be helped to defend its skies; otherwise, Russia will never stop its missile strikes.”Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine · Nov 3

After an overnight attack of 289 drones and 76 missiles, by Ukraine's count, on the day of the US vote. He said Russia believes "America will not notice this signal".

Post: UNN

“The PBOC sent a clear message to the market that they are concerned about the fast appreciation of yuan in October”Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist, Pinpoint Asset Management · Nov 3

China's central bank raised banks' reserve requirement on foreign-currency deposits and set a weaker fixing, sending the yuan toward its biggest daily drop since May.

Post: Business Recorder (Reuters)

“Sovereignty should not shield mass atrocity crimes, period.”Joy Ngozi Ezeilo, member, UN Fact-Finding Mission for Sudan · Oct 28

Said as UN rights chief Volker Türk reported that drone strikes killed at least 306 people across Sudan in the first three weeks of October.

Post: UN News

Infographic

Debt and services

In nearly four of five sub-Saharan countries, interest outruns health or schools

The World Bank finds interest payments exceed public spending on health, education or both in nearly four-fifths of sub-Saharan countries. The median country entered 2025 with public debt at 57% of GDP, up from 29% in 2012.

Interest exceeds health and/or educationOther countries
~80%of sub-Saharan countries where interest payments exceed public spending on health and/or education
57%Median public debt entering 2025, share of GDP
29%The same median in 2012
2.9-3.2%Average interest cost, share of GDP, 2023-26

The World Bank says "nearly four-fifths"; shown as 8 of 10 dots, rounded up. Figures from the World Bank's October 2026 Africa Economic Update as reported by Nairametrics.

Sources: Nairametrics (World Bank) · People Daily

Latest updates

US to require travellers to attest they have not been in Congo as Ebola deaths pass 5,3005:40 AM ETAfrica
  • Africa CDC counts 5,376 deaths and 10,444 confirmed cases since May, almost all in Congo; cases have also reached Kenya, Uganda and Nigeria. In Congo the fatality ratio has passed 50%, Bloomberg reports, citing the national public health institute.
  • From 11:59 PM ET on Tuesday, passengers on US-bound international flights must attest they have not been in Congo in the past 21 days. Africa CDC has questioned more than $700 million in response funding in Congo over missing financial records.

Travel rules ease fear abroad but do little in Ituri, where a strain with no approved vaccine kills about half of confirmed cases. Money for tracing, safe burials and the vaccine trial matters more, and so does accounting for money already sent.

The Rio Times · Nairametrics

Iran says talks with Saudi Arabia continue as Saudi-Houthi fighting escalates5:30 AM ETMiddle East
  • Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Tuesday that talks with Riyadh are ongoing and that Tehran wants regional security arrangements without foreign forces. Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani officials met Iranian officials in Tehran last week, the first high-level contact since August.
  • Houthi forces are advancing toward Bab el-Mandeb and have hit Saudi oil facilities and airports, including Riyadh's, Reuters reported. Saudi Arabia has answered with air strikes.

Yemen is where the Gulf's quarrels turn into casualties. A Saudi-Iranian understanding would also ease pressure on the Red Sea route, which matters more while Hormuz is shut.

Reuters via KFGO

Turkish inflation runs above forecasts at 29.8%5:20 AM ETTurkey
  • Consumer prices rose 2.58% in October and 29.77% from a year earlier, above forecasts of 2.4% and 29.56%. Clothing rose 12.58% and food 3.5%.
  • The central bank cut its policy rate by 100 basis points to 36% on Oct 22. The lira traded near 50 per dollar.

Asharq Al-Awsat

Gaza's Red Crescent warns the health system is at risk of collapse5:00 AM ETMiddle EastSingle source
  • Gaza's Health Ministry says 1,593 people have been killed since the ceasefire, as of Nov 2. The Palestinian Red Crescent warned on Monday that the system is at risk of collapse, with 26 hospitals out of service.
  • Gaza's Social Development Ministry says about 200,000 tents are needed; only dozens have arrived amid Israeli entry restrictions, Al Jazeera reported.

Al Jazeera

Feature · Hormuz detour

Saudi Arabia's way around Hormuz runs into the Red Sea war

Aramco is earning more and studying a bigger pipeline to the Red Sea, where Houthi forces are pushing toward Bab el-Mandeb.

Aramco Q3 profit$36.25bnUp 34.6%, helped by a one-off gain from a stake sale
East-West pipeline7m bpdCapacity to the Red Sea; Aramco is exploring an expansion
Red Sea outletUnder fireHouthis have hit Saudi oil sites and Riyadh's airport, Reuters reports
Iran-Saudi talksOngoingAraqchi wants regional security without foreign forces

Aramco's third-quarter net profit rose 34.6% to 135.9 billion riyals, helped by high prices and a 25.9 billion riyal gain from selling a stake to Petronas. Adjusted income rose 9%. Chief executive Amin Nasser told Reuters the company is exploring a larger East-West pipeline, which can carry up to 7 million barrels a day to the Red Sea, as well as other export routes and storage abroad.

That route ends near a second war. Reuters reports Houthi forces advancing toward Bab el-Mandeb and striking Saudi oil sites and airports, with Saudi air strikes in reply. Bypassing one chokepoint means leaning on another, so Riyadh's talks with Tehran matter for oil buyers as much as for Yemen.

Euronews · The National · Baird Maritime (Reuters) · Reuters via KFGO

MoneyDebt, deficits, taxes and what governments spend

China moves to slow the yuan's rallyAsia
  • The People's Bank of China raised the reserve requirement on banks' foreign-currency deposits to 6% from 4%, effective Nov 15, and set a weaker-than-expected midpoint of 6.7150 per dollar, Reuters reported. The onshore yuan fell to 6.6728, its weakest since Oct 23.
  • The yuan had risen for 13 straight days, the longest run since 1996, Bloomberg reported. China's official factory gauge for October showed new export orders at 48.7, below the 50 line between growth and contraction.

A strong yuan cheapens imported oil but squeezes exporters already facing weaker orders. Beijing is signalling it wants a slower, steadier climb.

Business Recorder (Reuters) · Swissinfo (Bloomberg) · Investment Executive

US Treasury trims its borrowing estimate for the quarter to $618bnAmericas
  • Treasury expects to borrow $618 billion in October-December, down from $628 billion estimated in August, and $800 billion in January-March, Reuters reported. It assumes an $850 billion cash balance at end-December.
  • Details of the quarterly refunding, including auction sizes, come on Wednesday.

With the 10-year yield near 4.9% and futures pricing a likely December Fed hike, each new dollar of debt costs more to carry. Wednesday's auction sizes will show how far Treasury leans on short-term bills.

Kitco (Reuters) · Kitco

Argentina's country risk hits its 2026 high as the peso slidesAmericasSingle source
  • Argentina's country-risk spread reached 787 basis points on Friday, its highest this year, and the peso traded near 1,545 per dollar, a 12-month low, The Rio Times reported. YPF shares fell about 6.9% on Monday.

The Rio Times

GeopoliticsWho is aligning with whom, where they clash, and what's been agreed

Kremlin says Medinsky will lead Russia's team at Abu Dhabi talks next weekEuropeSingle source on delegation
  • Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the Russian delegation will be in Abu Dhabi on Nov 10 and 11 for talks with the US and Ukraine, with Vladimir Medinsky as its head, APA reported.
  • US envoy Steve Witkoff said the talks will cover "post-war security arrangements, de-escalation, humanitarian efforts, and next steps toward peace" and that US negotiators meet France, Germany, Britain, the EU and NATO in Brussels this week.

Overnight strikes on Ukraine's grid set the tone for these talks. Any security arrangement is likely to need European money, which is why the Brussels meetings matter.

APA · Al Jazeera

Rubio presses Venezuela on a three-phase transition planAmericas
  • Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Venezuelan Foreign Minister Oliver Blanco on Monday. The State Department said they reaffirmed a three-phase plan of stabilisation, economic recovery and political reconciliation, and democratic transition.
  • Interim President Delcy Rodríguez has set no election date. Opposition leader María Corina Machado expects presidential elections in 2027, Al Jazeera reported.

An election date is the clearest test of the plan. Without one, oil deals and investment rest on promises.

Al Jazeera

Xi hosts Germany's president as China upgrades a Swiss trade pactAsia
  • Xi Jinping held talks with German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier on Steinmeier's first state visit to China in eight years, China's foreign ministry said. China and Switzerland signed a protocol upgrading their free trade agreement.
  • Gabon's President Brice Oligui Nguema begins a state visit on Tuesday that includes the China International Import Expo.

China Foreign Ministry

North Korea condemns a US-South Korean nuclear planning drillAsiaSingle source
  • A KCNA statement by munitions-industry official Kim Jong Sik said the "Iron Mace" tabletop exercise shows US "wild ambition to stifle the DPRK with nukes," NK News reported. The drill rehearses combined nuclear and conventional planning.

NK News

Chart of the day

Seoul and Taipei take the brunt of Tuesday's chip sell-off

Change on Tuesday, Nov 3, %; Sensex intraday-4%-2%0%-3.6%Kospi-3.8%Taiex-0.8%Shanghai+0.3%ASX 200+0.6%Hang Seng+1.3%Sensex

Kospi close (−3.59%, rounded) from MarketScreener; other moves from AP, Sensex during trading. Tokyo was closed for a holiday.

Law & businessCourt rulings, regulation, rules and the big corporate moves

Supreme Court rejects a Justice Department bid to set aside 20,000 California mail ballotsAmericas
  • In a one-line unsigned order on Monday, with no noted dissents, the US Supreme Court denied the department's emergency request to make California set aside mail ballots it says came from noncitizens.
  • A divided appeals court had refused the same request. District Judge David Carter called the government's identification process "rife with uncertainty and errors."

This challenge failed at every level of the federal courts. Rules settled before voting day protect confidence in whatever result comes.

CBS News

Supreme Court hears Catholic preschools' challenge to Colorado's universal pre-K rulesAmericas
  • The justices hear St. Mary Catholic Parish v. Roy on Tuesday. Catholic preschools shut out of Colorado's free universal preschool program argue that its nondiscrimination rules, including protections for LGBTQ families, violate their free exercise of religion.
  • The ruling could set how far states can attach nondiscrimination conditions to public money that religious providers receive.

SCOTUSblog · US Supreme Court calendar

Oracle plans a $20bn share and debt sale; its stock falls almost 9%Americas
  • Oracle shares fell almost 9% on Monday after it announced plans to raise $20 billion through a share and debt sale, Reuters reported.
  • Marvell fell about 13% and Lumentum 18.6% after Marvell agreed its $115 billion all-stock deal for Lumentum, including debt, which needs antitrust approval and is expected to close in the first half of 2028.

Tech groups are now issuing shares and debt to pay for AI capacity. Investors and regulators will watch how much of that borrowing sits with firms whose revenue has yet to catch up.

Kitco (Reuters) · Yahoo Finance